When Will This Recession Finally End?

There's really just one question that matters this new year. When will the recession end?

OK, I lied. There's another question that matters even more. Will the recession ever end?
I have a lot of institutional clients who take very seriously the idea that this recession could be permanent. In their minds, it could turn out to be more like a depression. Even when we pull out of the worst of it, we'll be stuck with year after year of slow growth.
Pretty much no one thinks this recession could possibly already be over. And only a few brave souls dare to consider that it might only take another quarter or so to hit bottom. So it's just a matter of, how bad is it really?
Call me crazy, but I actually think we could all end up being pretty pleasantly surprised. I admit I was one of the last people on earth to agree we were in recession in the first place. So let me make up for that mistake: I'll be the first person to say it's over.
I don't mean to get carried away on wings of optimism here. But there really are some hopeful signs. Some of the same symptoms that, earlier this year, gave us an early warning that recession was lurking are now pointing in a more hopeful direction.

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